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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the prize. However, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

But this year's field is profoundly different. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and recent underperformers ascending collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still